Saturday, April 21, 2007

Poll: A BCer is now happy.

No, not that blogger, but me, another BCer.

From the latest Ipsos-Reid poll:

"In British Columbia, the Liberals stood at 34 per cent, while the Tories trailed at 30 per cent, dropping nine points."

So, while nationally the Tories lead the Liberals 39% to 29% according to this poll, I'm wondering what happens when we remove the Tories' 70% polling in Alberta.

It's amazing how the Liberals are so unpopular in Alberta (17%) and Quebec (20%). What's up?

And in Quebec, what does a seat projection look like if the Tories take over some Bloc ridings? Is Tory popularity in Quebec coming at the expense of Liberal seats? I imagine Liberals could not be any less popular in Quebce than they were last election.

2 comments:

A BCer in Toronto said...

Well, I'm relatively happy too petroom, all things considered, but thanks for the clarification. :)

I wouldn't put too much stock into those Ipsos numbers though, something seems a little wonky. This is another reminder though to other pollsters though that lumping BC in with "the west" doesn't make much sense.

Wild Rose Grit said...

Keep in mind, the Liberal Poll numbers in Alberta always forecast Gloom and Doom for the party. But the Party always does much better at the polls.

For example, during the last provincial election, the Liberal Party was consistently polling 15 percent. On election day, the party received about 30 percent of the popular vote.

The problem is that the Liberal Vote in Rural Alberta is so spread out. When the polling firms dip their nets in the pond, they end up picking up a disproportionately small number of Liberals.

The only place you find any concentration of Liberals in Alberta is in Calgary and Edmonton. Hence the 17 seats. But the polling firms need to dip in every pond, not the urban pond.

As for Qu├ębec, if we lose any of those seats which we currently hold, I can assure you the Liberal Party would be in serious trouble. These are ridings which will vote Liberal, even if the candidate was a mailbox.